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February 22, 2012
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Over the Horizon: Nothing Inevitable About War With Iran

By Robert Farley 22 Feb 2012
Column

The case for attacking Iran relies on the concept of uncertainty. We don’t know if the Iranians want to build a bomb, or if they can build a bomb, or what the consequences will be if they do build a bomb. It’s understandable how so much uncertainty can trigger anxiety. What is less clear is how we arrived at the notion that airstrikes against the Iranian nuclear program can eliminate this uncertainty.

The New Rules: The Coming War With Iran

By Thomas P.M. Barnett 13 Feb 2012 | Column

While the debate over whether Israel will strike Iran ebbs and flows on an almost weekly basis, a collision-course trajectory is undeniably emerging. To put it succinctly, Iran won't back down, while Israel won't back off, and America will back up Israel and Saudi Arabia when the shooting finally starts. This coming war will ultimately target regime change in Tehran, because that is the only plausible solution.

The Realist Prism: Iran Nuclear Standoff Obscures Broader Proliferation Challenges

By Nikolas Gvosdev 27 Jan 2012 | Column

America’s current standoff with Iran over the direction of Tehran’s nuclear program is only one symptom of a larger problem. As more countries to turn to atomic energy, some of these nuclear newcomers will want to control the entire fuel cycle on their own territory. The U.S. approach to Iran’s nuclear program offers no guidance for coping with the resulting spread of nuclear technology.

The Realist Prism: Iran's Nuclear Pipedream, and Washington's

By Nikolas Gvosdev 20 Jan 2012 | Column

With the possibility of a clash between the U.S. and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program looming, one cannot help but wonder: Is it worth it for Iran, now grappling with increasingly onerous sanctions, to continue its pursuit of a nuclear capacity? By all indications, Iran's leaders believe so, based on their read of recent history, by which only nuclear weapons provide a deterrent to U.S. intervention.

Iran's Fading Deterrent Could Increase the Lure of Going Nuclear

By Zachary Keck 18 Jan 2012 | Briefing

Recent events have underscored that the three pillars of Iran’s long-standing deterrent-based military doctrine have become wasting assets. This is likely to influence the regime’s continued debate over whether to cross the nuclear threshold. As Iranian policymakers lose confidence in their deterrent capabilities, the rationale for a nuclear arsenal will become increasingly apparent.  

Special Report: Iran, Playing With Fire

By The Editors 03 Jan 2012 | Report

The standoff over Iran's nuclear program has raised tensions in the Persian Gulf, even as factional battles in Tehran have divided the Iranian regime. This WPR special report examines Iran through articles published in the past year.

Saudi Arabia's Al-Faisal Hints at Nuclear Arms Ambition . . . Again

By Michael Cecire 08 Dec 2011 | Trend Lines

Recent remarks by a prominent Saudi Arabian royal have fanned new fears that Iran's advancing nuclear program could kick-start a nuclear arms race in the region.

Syria's Chemical Weapons an Opaque but Alarming Risk

By Michelle E. Dover 05 Dec 2011 | Briefing

Recent reports from Syria of military defectors attacking an Air Force intelligence building in Hasrata highlight the growing likelihood that military sites will become a target in the country’s ongoing conflict. The incident illustrates the possibility of escalating instability within Syria’s military command, making Syria’s alleged chemical weapons program cause for particular concern.

Global Insider: Israel's Missile Capabilities

By The Editors 05 Dec 2011 | Trend Lines

In an email interview, Dinshaw Mistry, an associate professor at the University of Cincinnati and the author of “Containing Missile Proliferation,” discussed Israel’s missile capabilities.

Global Insider: Iran's Missile Capabilities

By The Editors 18 Nov 2011 | Trend Lines

In an email interview, Bruno Gruselle, a senior research fellow at the Foundation for Strategic Research, discussed Iran’s missile capabilities.

Over the Horizon: Iran and the Nuclear Paradox

By Robert Farley 16 Nov 2011 | Column

How much danger would Iranian nuclear weapons pose to the world? Nuclear weapons are by their nature alarming, and the Iranian regime says and does a lot of alarming things. But how useful are nuclear weapons, even to a state with bad intentions? How much do they change tactical and strategic behavior? For devices capable of destroying cities and killing millions, the answer is surprisingly murky.

The New Rules: How to Stop Worrying and Live with the Iranian Bomb

By Thomas P.M. Barnett 14 Nov 2011 | Column

The International Atomic Energy Agency’s latest report on Iran’s nuclear program created the usual flurry of op-eds championing preventative “next steps.” But there are none. Once the U.S. went into both Iraq and Afghanistan, the question went from being, “How do we prevent Iran from getting the Bomb?” to “How do we handle Iran’s Bomb?”

Signs of a Thaw Ahead in U.S.-North Korea Relations

By Prashanth Parameswaran 14 Nov 2011 | Briefing

Despite U.S. President Barack Obama's campaign promise to engage rogue regimes, America's relationship with North Korea has been frosty since he took office. A string of provocations by Pyongyang last year, including the sinking of a South Korean navy ship, further dampened hopes for progress. But recent staff changes in the Obama administration and other signals suggest that ties may warm in the coming months.

The Realist Prism: Running Out the Clock on Iran's Nuclear Program

By Nikolas Gvosdev 11 Nov 2011 | Column

The latest IAEA report on Iran’s nuclear program is bad news for the Obama administration. Given the “musical chairs” nature of U.S. politics, where the person left standing when the music stops loses, the blame for Tehran getting the bomb will fall squarely on President Barack Obama’s shoulders, even though one could quite fairly apportion a fair share to his predecessors.

Global Insights: Iran's Slow but Steady Nuclear March

By Richard Weitz 08 Nov 2011 | Column

According to media reports, the latest International Atomic Energy Agency assessment of Iran's nuclear program due out this week will find that Iran has made considerable progress in developing a nuclear weapons capacity despite international sanctions, cyber attacks and other impediments. As a result, Iran will soon be in the position to develop nuclear weapons should its leaders decide to pursue them.

IAEA Iran Nuclear Report: A Skeptic's Primer

By Judah Grunstein 07 Nov 2011 | Trend Lines

A "skeptic's primer" of the arguments you're likely to hear from all sides of the Iran nuclear debate that will inevitably unfold in the next few weeks.

The IAEA's Political Balancing Act

By Michelle E. Dover, Miles A. Pomper 27 Sep 2011 | Feature

As the International Atomic Energy Agency held its Board of Governors meeting and annual General Conference over the past two weeks, the members of this United Nations body found themselves bitterly divided between those states with advanced nuclear capabilities and those that lack them, divisions that are likely to persist even after the agency turns the page on this year's meetings.

Expanding Nuclear Weapons Budget a Bad Investment

By Laicie Olson, Kingston Reif 26 Sep 2011 | Briefing

Getting America's fiscal house in order will require making smart decisions about what is most needed to safeguard U.S. national security in the 21st century. But a close look at the Pentagon budget reveals numerous programs that are more suitable to defeating the Cold War-era Soviet Union than to addressing current security threats. A particularly egregious example is the budget for nuclear weapons programs.

Explaining Libya to Iran

By Alexander Bollfrass 12 Sep 2011 | Briefing

Eight years after Moammar Gadhafi gave up his nuclear weapons program and chemical munitions in exchange for détente with the West, he has been chased from power by a rebel army backed by Western airpower. While Gadhafi's fall is good news, it heightens the challenge of getting the Irans and North Koreas of the world to give up their nuclear ambitions in exchange for better relations with the West.

Iran Nuclear Offer Another Stalling Tactic

By Guy Taylor 07 Sep 2011 | Trend Lines

Iran's recent offer to allow IAEA inspectors "full supervision" of its nuclear program is part of a broader strategy designed to forestall the nuclear watchdog agency.

For a New Libya, Major Challenges Lie Ahead

By Jamsheed K. Choksy 24 Aug 2011 | Briefing

With the breaking of Libya's many-month stalemate, the end of a 42-year reign of megalomaniacal tyranny has arrived. As the rebels attempt to consolidate power in Tripoli, however, what lies ahead for Libya as a nation and for the foreign powers that paved the way for Moammar Gadhafi's ouster remains far from certain. Key to the future of a viable Libya will be law, stabilization and reconstruction.