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By Nikolas Gvosdev
03 Feb 2012
Column
Now that the Western powers have endorsed the Arab League’s call for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down, even if that formulation is ultimately edited out of any U.N. Security Council resolution, it is time to start making plans for the contingencies that may erupt on "the day after." This means moving beyond the optimistic scenarios most Western policymakers continue to cling to.
By Frida Ghitis
02 Feb 2012 |
Column
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has given mixed signals about whether or not he plans to call for early parliamentary elections this year, but it's a good bet he will. The reason is simple: If U.S. President Barack Obama wins re-election, Netanyahu will likely face continuing friction with the American president, something Netanyahu does not want to surface in the middle of a campaign in 2013.
By Robert Farley
01 Feb 2012 |
Column
Most of the time, when confronted with the shortcomings of the national security system in place since 1947, we choose to muddle through with minor revisions. On rare occasions, when the institutions that make up the national security bureaucracy are fundamentally out of sync with the nation's strategic environment, we have the opportunity to redesign them. There is reason to believe the U.S. now faces such a moment.
By Richard Weitz
31 Jan 2012 |
Column
On Jan. 26, the Pentagon released further information about how the new Defense Strategic Guidance will be reflected in the Defense Department’s future spending priorities. The changes, designed to meet the White House’s mandate to cut $37 billion from its previously planned Fiscal Year 2013 defense budget, conform with the strategic guidance document, but they leave several questions unanswered.
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
30 Jan 2012 |
Column
The American political discourse is rife with fear-threat reactions regarding rising China, with one recurring theme being the superiority of Beijing's “state capitalism” model of economic development. But China is now reaching the same boiling point that America did in the late-19th century: It can either pursue a progressive agenda or suffer continued attempts at revolution from below.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
27 Jan 2012 |
Column
America’s current standoff with Iran over the direction of Tehran’s nuclear program is only one symptom of a larger problem. As more countries to turn to atomic energy, some of these nuclear newcomers will want to control the entire fuel cycle on their own territory. The U.S. approach to Iran’s nuclear program offers no guidance for coping with the resulting spread of nuclear technology.
By Frida Ghitis
26 Jan 2012 |
Column
When the U.S. and Israel announced last week that they had decided to either cancel or postpone the biggest joint military exercise in their history, the news kicked the wheels of the Mideast rumor and speculation machines into high gear. What had started as a determined show of military force and political coordination to send a clear signal to Iran suddenly turned into a mess of mixed messages and confusion.
By Robert Farley
25 Jan 2012 |
Column
Pundits and commentators have begun to fall over themselves declaring the necessity of launching military campaigns against Syria and Iran. The catalyst for this enthusiasm is the success of NATO’s aerial campaign in Libya. Unfortunately, the rediscovered enthusiasm for intervention demonstrates only that the foreign policy punditocracy is committed to serially mislearning the lessons of airpower in war.
By Richard Weitz
24 Jan 2012 |
Column
On Jan. 15, in polling that the OSCE characterized as not meeting the “fundamental principles of democratic elections,” the ruling Nur Otan party won more than 80 percent of votes cast. Though Kazakhstan has developed the administrative machinery necessary to hold free and fair elections, further changes in its electoral procedures are needed to increase the prospects of this breakthrough occurring.
By Thomas P.M. Barnett
23 Jan 2012 |
Column
Human life expectancy at birth, which doubled over the course of the 20th century, now seems destined to experience a similarly bold leap across the 21st century. When it does, it will shift human thinking about population control from its present focus on the outset of life to the increasingly delayed final curtain. But the technological advances are likely to come faster than our political systems can handle.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
20 Jan 2012 |
Column
With the possibility of a clash between the U.S. and Iran over Tehran's nuclear program looming, one cannot help but wonder: Is it worth it for Iran, now grappling with increasingly onerous sanctions, to continue its pursuit of a nuclear capacity? By all indications, Iran's leaders believe so, based on their read of recent history, by which only nuclear weapons provide a deterrent to U.S. intervention.