Articles written by Iain Mills
By Iain Mills
08 Feb 2012 |
Briefing
China's policy of non-interference in the affairs of other nations fails to protect its expanding overseas interests and has caused a trust deficit with regard to China’s intentions at an intergovernmental level. This raises the question of how long the non-interference policy can be sustained, and whether Chinese interests would be better served by abandoning it for a less rigid position.
By Iain Mills
01 Feb 2012 |
Briefing
With Western investors on the back foot in the past year, Chinese sovereign wealth funds have expanded their ownership of strategic overseas assets. While Chinese foreign investment is seen by many as a cause for geopolitical concern, these entities are becoming increasingly sophisticated and credible, representing one of the most viable mechanisms for restoring balance to global trade and investment flows.
By Iain Mills
22 Dec 2011 |
Briefing
There is growing evidence that China is entering a new phase in its economic development, even as deterioration in the global macroeconomic environment has limited Beijing's policy options for reform and reduced its margin for error. With domestic systemic financial stress and social tension also both ticking upward, 2012 could prove to be one of the most challenging years yet in China's economic re-emergence.
By Iain Mills
30 Nov 2011 |
Briefing
Following recent declines in headline inflation, weak power generation in October and deepening financial losses for power companies, speculation has once again picked up regarding potential coal and electricity pricing reform in China. While some form of price adjustment looks imminent, structural reforms to pricing mechanisms affect multiple domestic interest groups and are proving hard to manage.
By Iain Mills
11 Nov 2011 |
Briefing
Major Chinese participation in any European rescue plan would require significant material concessions from European leaders to gain any traction among Chinese policymakers. So far, the proposed concessions have been largely symbolic, such as promises to recognize China's market economy status. But far more tangible quid pro quos would be necessary to induce China to participate directly in any bailout package.
By Iain Mills
10 Nov 2011 |
Briefing
Recent optimism regarding possible Chinese involvement in addressing the European debt crisis is misplaced given China's domestic political and economic conditions and resistance within the European Union itself. Meanwhile, the assumption that China will invest significant amounts of its sovereign wealth an as-yet-undefined bailout fund without any major concessions from the EU is deeply misguided.
By Iain Mills
24 Oct 2011 |
Briefing
The Currency Exchange Rate Oversight Reform Act, approved in the U.S. Senate last week, carries significant risks for very little reward. At a time when U.S. economic credibility is at an all-time low, the bill ignores tangible measures China is taking to develop its currency regime and distracts from the need for a more introspective and pertinent discussion of the United States' economic challenges.
By Iain Mills
18 Oct 2011 |
Briefing
China-Russia relations took another step forward during Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's visit to Beijing last week. With the Arab Spring throwing the two governments into an unexpected alliance at the United Nations this year, the visit marked the continuation of attempts to build a deeper and less volatile relationship. That was hardly a certainty when the Russian delegation arrived in China for the two-day visit.
By Iain Mills
19 Sep 2011 |
Briefing
China has found itself behind the curve on Libya, its response revealing the disparate interest groups within its foreign policy apparatus and the challenges it faces when responding to international events. Despite previous progress, China's foreign policy apparatus needs to become more adroit at public positioning and institutionally consistent in its private diplomacy to secure its international rise.
By Iain Mills
26 Aug 2011 |
Briefing
The recent market correction and an increasingly bleak economic outlook have sharpened the case for a G-20 economic grand bargain. China has the capacity to take a lead in any such arrangement, using its $3 trillion foreign exchange reserves as bargaining chips for reshaping the global economy to better suit its interests. This could form the bedrock of broad-based and coordinated policy action to address both East-West and North-South economic imbalances.
By Iain Mills
25 Aug 2011 |
Briefing
When the global financial crisis broke in 2008, policymakers intervened to set the unholy precedent of nationalizing financial market risks. Moreover, this was done without addressing structural imbalances. Events of the last three weeks have demonstrated the ineffectiveness of previous interventions and underscored the case for an economic grand bargain to restructure and reinvigorate the global economy.
By Iain Mills
04 Aug 2011 |
Briefing
China's social contract revolves around the Communist Party delivering the benefits of modernization to the country's citizenry, and not, as Western observers might hope, around the transition to multi-party democracy. Consequently, technocratic failure presents the greatest risk to the party's domestic credibility, as highlighted by the ongoing wave of public anger over the Wenzhou high-speed rail crash.
By Iain Mills
27 Jul 2011 |
Briefing
Since 2009, China's credit-fueled economic stimulus plan has increased overall indebtedness and created new risks to long-term headline growth. Among the most acute of these is local government debt. Clearing up the mess has emerged as a key challenge for maintaining strong economic growth. However, the solution requires a fundamental rebalancing of the power relations between central and local government.
By Iain Mills
28 Jun 2011 |
Briefing
Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping's recent three-country tour of Latin America was aimed at addressing concerns over the asymmetric and
one-dimensional nature of China's relations in the region, which generally conform to the classic center-periphery model. Xi's visit outlined a blueprint
for how China's incoming leadership intends to deepen its international
relations and consolidate recent economic foreign policy gains.
By Iain Mills
21 Jun 2011 |
Briefing
Some China-watchers have argued recently that the rule of law is
weakening in the People's Republic. However, a
less-commented-on countertrend is the re-emergence of legal processes
inspired by indigenous conventions, such as trial by
public opinion. This shift may explain China's more assertive foreign policy over the past 18
months and has significant implications for the country's
leadership aspirations in Asia.
By Iain Mills
24 May 2011 |
Briefing
One consequence of the global financial crisis has been new and accelerated patterns of Chinese
trade and investment abroad. For the United States, the implications of this new multidirectionalism are
significant. But with bilateral investment
between the two countries contracting, the U.S. must adapt its
approach to this issue to ensure it benefits from the forthcoming
chapter in China's domestic growth story.
By Iain Mills
17 May 2011 |
Briefing
Enhanced connectivity in international systems is creating new sources of comparative advantage for nations. But even as horizontal
global networks are proliferating, China maintains a rigidly vertical
hierarchy of information. This exceptionalism, increasingly apparent
throughout China's domestic and foreign policy, is emerging as a fundamental obstacle to the country's continued international
rise.
By Iain Mills
10 May 2011 |
Briefing
While the Chinese yuan's increased convertibility and value against the dollar may suggest China is finally getting serious about
rationalizing the value of the yuan, recent measures are geared toward
internationalization rather than genuine liberalization, and China's
economy is still decades away from being able to support a free-floating
currency. It is in the U.S. interest to support Beijing in this
transition.
By Iain Mills
20 Apr 2011 |
Briefing
Much has been written about China's huge investment in alternative
energy sources. China spends twice as much as the U.S. on clean energy,
and critics of U.S. energy policy have claimed that Beijing is "steaming
ahead" in the field. Beneath
the headline figures, however, a more complex picture emerges, in which
China is struggling to translate capital investment into tangible
benefits.
By Iain Mills
12 Apr 2011 |
Briefing
China's telecom
sector has enjoyed a period of impressive international expansion over
the past decade, with national
flagship companies building their international operations through overseas purchases and cooperative ventures with foreign
partners. However, the sector's close ties to the state have also been the source of persistent
cybersecurity concerns that remain a key challenge for future expansion.