Articles written by Michael Cecire
By Michael Cecire
17 Jan 2012 |
Briefing
The standoff between Ukraine and Russia over gas prices will be accompanied by an added wrinkle this year, with news that Ukraine plans to ink a deal with energy-rich Azerbaijan for supplies of liquefied natural gas. The partnership will finally introduce unconventional energy sources to Ukraine, and underscores the flagging fortunes of Russia’s pipeline monopoly and the dwindling leverage it commands.
By Michael Cecire
16 Dec 2011 |
Briefing
With Russia embroiled in demonstrations following surprisingly competitive Duma elections and South Ossetia gripped by political confusion over its own surprising presidential poll, it may be time to re-evaluate a few political tropes in Eurasia. The developments are all the more noteworthy for coming as Georgia faces a political showdown that is casting the republic’s autocratic contours into sharp relief.
By Michael Cecire
14 Dec 2011 |
Trend Lines
The latest front in the Arab Spring opened up in Kuwait when Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmed Al Sabah issued a decree dissolving Kuwait’s parliament in response to months of protests.
By Michael Cecire
08 Dec 2011 |
Trend Lines
Recent remarks by a prominent Saudi Arabian royal have fanned new fears that Iran's advancing nuclear program could kick-start a nuclear arms race in the region.
By Michael Cecire
08 Sep 2011 |
Briefing
A memorandum of understanding between the Armenian Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources and the Isle of Man-registered International Minerals & Mines Ltd. is paving the way for the exploration of Armenia's shale reserves. Should large-scale commercial extraction proceed, Armenia's energy find could grant the landlocked Caucasus nation a measure of energy independence and, with it, newfound geopolitical freedom.
By Michael Cecire
02 Aug 2011 |
Briefing
Allegations of Russian involvement in a bombing targeting the U.S. embassy compound in Tbilisi, Georgia, have sent diplomatic shockwaves through international policy circles and threaten the Obama administration's carefully calibrated "reset" program with Moscow. While the details of the incident underscore the Caucasus' still-smoldering volatility, they are consistent with Russia's longtime activities in the region.
By Michael Cecire
12 Jul 2011 |
Briefing
Georgia's image as a lonely bastion of Western-style modernity in the South Caucasus faces a credibility problem in light of Tbilisi's continuing lack of political progress toward a truly liberal democracy. By allowing Georgia's democratic development to remain at a standstill, President Mikheil Saakashvili risks damaging the country's legitimacy, both domestically and with its partners in the West.
By Michael Cecire
30 Jun 2011 |
Briefing
Against the backdrop of the Middle East's ongoing upheaval, especially
the violence in neighboring Syria, Turkey's once-vaunted "zero problems"
foreign policy strategy now looks severely outdated. Though Turkey will
continue to seek a balanced, multivector foreign policy, the
liabilities of its strategy, as illustrated in Syria, have laid bare
Ankara's continued Western moorings.
By Michael Cecire
28 Mar 2011 |
Briefing
The U.S.-led intervention in Libya is now in full swing, thanks to a
10-0 vote by the U.N. Security Council. But the seeming unanimity of the vote belies key abstentions from
a wary Germany as well as Brazil, Russia, India and China -- the so-called BRIC countries. The BRICs' abstentions
raise difficult questions about the future of a rules-based
international order at a time of relative U.S. decline.
By Michael Cecire
07 Dec 2010 |
Briefing
TBILISI, Georgia -- Since coming to power in 2003, the government of
Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili has declared its desire and intention to bring the country into the West's
orbit. That goal has been most visibly illustrated by Georgia's efforts
to join the NATO alliance as a full member. But geopolitical
realities continue to interfere with those plans, forcing Tbilisi to
adjust its foreign policy accordingly.
By Michael Cecire
18 Oct 2010 |
Briefing
TBILISI, Georgia -- Turkey's ongoing foreign-policy reorientation will not only reshape the
contours of the surrounding region, but could also force the West and
those hopeful of joining its orbit to consider how to position
themselves in the resulting geopolitical landscape. Georgia, in
particular, will be especially affected by Ankara's emergence as a
regional center of influence.
By Michael Cecire
25 Jun 2010 |
World Politics Review
In the early 18th century, King Vakhtang VI of the ancient Georgian
kingdom of Karlti watched as his kingdom was brought to ruin by the onslaught of Persians, Ottomans, and Russians. Today, the
dynamics that marked the 18th century are no less potent.
Georgia and the Caucasus
remain strategic real estate for the historically competing
empires of Persia (Iran), Muscovy (Russia), and the Turks (Turkey).
By Michael Cecire
15 Apr 2010 |
World Politics Review
TBILISI, Georgia -- Most Western defense analysts seem to
believe that the sale of four French Mistral-class
amphibious vessels to Russia will not only happen, but is an item of overblown
concern. However, prevailing opinion in Washington and Brussels stands
in sharp contrast to Eastern European capitals, where unease over the
sale remains strong and is rooted in very different assumptions over
Moscow's intentions.
By Michael Cecire
09 Feb 2010 |
World Politics Review
TBILISI, Georgia -- Since August 2008, when Russian tanks rolled into Georgian territory, Georgia has been let down by the very Western countries it considered to be its
closest friends. Although the Georgian population continues to register overwhelming
support for integration into Euro-Atlantic structures, there are now
indications that the country's political elite might be losing patience.
By Michael Cecire
05 Jan 2010 |
World Politics Review
Georgia's decision to send almost 1,000 soldiers to Afghanistan makes sense
considering the current government's Westward lean and its NATO ambitions. But the country's short-term chances of accession to NATO are slim at best. So
why would Tbilisi commit its forces to the NATO mission in Afghanistan
with so little to gain?
By Michael Cecire
05 Oct 2009 |
World Politics Review
Unlike South Ossetia, which hopes to join the Russian Federation,
Abkhazia has made it very clear that it wants nothing short of full
independence. Yet, signals from Western capitals and Tbilisi in support of eventual
"reunification" with Georgia are paradoxically securing
Abkhazia's place in Russia's orbit. Perhaps it's time to call Russia's bluff and recognize Abkhazia's independence.