When asked for his assessment of the French Revolution's historical impact, Zhou Enlai famously replied, "It is too early to tell." Historians are fond of citing the quotation, but at times ignore its fundamental insight: that they often arrive at their judgment of historical events prematurely. Nowhere does this seem truer than in the case of America's controversial intervention in Iraq.
For most historians, the narrative of the Iraq War terminates decisively with failure in 2006, even as the chronology of its costs is generously extended decades into the future (e.g., the famous $3 trillion estimate). Meanwhile, any successes -- whether the subsequent surge or the four consecutive free national elections that preceded and followed it -- are summarily discounted as meaningless, and certainly unworthy of the accumulated cost. So it's not surprising that from this perspective,
no definition of "victory," or even completion, will ever be possible. ...